L’analyse coûts-avantages de la FAO publiée dans Nature Sustainability montre un rendement moyen de 1,2 dollars pour chaque dollar investi dans le projet de restauration des terres, malgré les conditions climatiques rigoureuses.
C’est un retour sur investissement inattendu. L’objectif de la Grande muraille verte d’Afrique n’est pas en effet de générer des profits. Elle vise plutôt à lutter contre la désertification dans la région du Sahel. Mais, d’après une nouvelle étude menée par l’Organisation des Nations unies pour l’alimentation et l’agriculture (FAO) et publiée dans Nature Sustainability, elle peut aussi être un débouché commercial intéressant pour les investisseurs.
Selon l’analyse, de ce mardi 16 novembre 2021, pour chaque dollar investi dans cette initiative de grande ampleur qui part du Sénégal à l’ouest à Djibouti à l’est, les investisseurs peuvent s’attendre à un rendement moyen de 1,2 dollars. Ce profit peut même monter jusqu’à 4,4 dollars, précise le document.
Pour le Coordonnateur des projets internationaux au sein de la Division des forêts de la FAO et l’un des principaux auteurs de l’étude, Moctar Sacande, cité par le document, « nous devons faire évoluer le discours sur la région du Sahel afin de montrer que, malgré l’environnement hostile et sec de la région, les investisseurs peuvent tout de même obtenir un rendement viable en investissant dans la restauration des terres. »
L’étude est fondée sur des données de terrain et des données satellitaires qui permettent de suivre la dégradation des terres sur la période 2001-2018. Celles-ci sont ensuite comparées aux coûts et aux avantages de la restauration des terres selon différents scénarios adaptés aux circonstances locales.
D’après M. Sacande, les résultats de l’analyse sont le dernier élément nécessaire pour comprendre la situation économique et viennent s’ajouter à la volonté politique et au savoir-faire technique déjà en place, et devraient encourager le secteur privé, qui manifeste un intérêt croissant.
Le verdissement et la restauration des terres dans cette zone longue de 8.000 kilomètres qui traverse le continent sont déjà en cours. Les populations plantent des espèces arboricoles résistantes, comme l’acacia du Sénégal, qui produit de la gomme arabique, fréquemment utilisée comme émulsifiant dans les aliments et les boissons, ou l’arbre gao, aussi appelé Faidherbia albida. Ce dernier aide à fertiliser les sols pour qu’y soient notamment produits du fourrage et des cultures de base comme le millet.
L’étude a indiqué que la surface couverte par l’initiative Grande muraille verte restait limitée et n’atteignait que 4 millions des 100 millions d’hectares ciblés.
Au total, quelque 20 milliards d’USD ont été promis au niveau international en vue de transposer à plus grande échelle l’initiative Grande muraille verte, dont 14,3 milliards d’USD promis à l’occasion du Sommet One Planet pour la biodiversité tenu en janvier de cette année à Paris, et 1 milliard d’USD promis par le fondateur d’Amazon, M. Jeff Bezos, lors de la conférence climatique de la COP26, qui vient de se terminer.
Les modalités concrètes d’accès à ces fonds doivent encore être déterminées, d’après M. Sacande, qui ajoute que si une partie des fonds n’est pas versée très rapidement, il pourrait être trop tard pour planter les arbres avant la tombée des précipitations limitées attendues en juin et en juillet.
L’initiative Grande muraille verte permettrait de stocker du carbone et de restaurer la biodiversité et s’attache à apporter des avantages socio-économiques aux populations défavorisées de la région. Elle couvre les domaines clés que sont l’atténuation du changement climatique, l’adaptation à ses effets et la résilience face aux aléas climatiques.
Elle contribue également à la réalisation des Objectifs de développement durable 1 (pas de pauvreté), 2 (faim zéro), 13 (mesures relatives à la lutte contre les changements climatiques), 15 (Vie terrestre) et 17 (partenariats pour la réalisation des objectifs) du Programme de développement durable à l’horizon 2030.
L’analyse souligne par ailleurs que du fait des conflits armés qui caractérisent la région, certains investisseurs sont longtemps restés méfiants à l’égard du potentiel de l’initiative. En outre, l’étude a conclu qu’environ 50 % des terres concernées sont actuellement inaccessibles pour des raisons de sécurité. Malgré cela, les interventions de restauration des terres continuent de représenter un débouché commercial viable, selon les auteurs.
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