MALI-SENEGAL:Un Embargo à risques !

Allons nous revivre dans les prochains jours, les épisodes sombres d’une guerre froide, qui, en réalité, n’a jamais connu de trêve.
La grande région Ouest-africaine est devenue le terrain d’une guerre délocalisée des économies occidentales.
Ce qui se joue, dans nos pays est sans aucun doute, une  »guerre économique » par belligérants interposés. Encore que l’embargo récemment décrété par la CEDEAO, vient réconforter nos craintes sur de possibles tensions économiques entre pays voisins africains autrefois amis indivisibles.
Ceci dit, le Sénégal, au sein de la CEDEAO, devait trouver le prétexte pour ne pas cautionner l’acte de l’embargo envers le Mali voisin. D’ailleurs, les statistiques sur les échanges entre nos deux pays, durant ces deux dernières années, révèlent un excédent de plusieurs milliards de francs CFA aux avantages du Sénégal.
Des sources révèlent que notre pays, Le Sénégal, risque de perdre plus de 250 milliards de francs CFA par an, si la mesure perdure.
Selon des chiffres de l’ANSD, les exportations sénégalaises vers la CEDEAO, représentent 81,7 % des expéditions vers le continent africain au cours de la période sous revue.
Et le Mali arrive en tête avec 205 milliards de FCFA, suivi de la Côte d’Ivoire, de la Guinée, de la Gambie et du Burkina Faso »
En analyse simple, le Sénégal sera le plus perdant des pays de la CEDEAO.
S’y ajoutent les risques de voir l’État malien revoir son partenariat économique avec le Sénégal, en guise de représailles contre le traitement infligé. En premier, les accords avec le port de Dakar qui tire une grosse part de ses bénéfices sur les importations maliennes (4 millions de tonnes de marchandises passent par les eaux sénégalaises) et qui pourrait voir son chiffre d’affaires régressé. Même que les transporteurs routiers pourraient y laisser des plumes dans cette affaire. Constatons que des centaines de camions quittent le port de Dakar, chaque jour, pour se rendre au Mali.
Sur le plan politique, le Mali qui partage ses frontières avec le Sénégal vit depuis plusieurs années une situation d’instabilité sociopolitique, avec des renversements de pouvoirs et la guerre contre l’occupation terroriste au Nord de son territoire.
l’État sénégalais s’est vu naturellement invité dans cette lutte, du fait de la réciprocité, d’où les mesures de sécurité comme la pérennisation des surveillances dans les frontières et le renforcement de la logistique militaire. Rappelons que depuis deux ans, le colonel Assimi Goïta occupe la magistrature suprême, après un coup d’état perpétré par l’armée malienne. D’ailleurs c’est suite à sa déclaration de poursuivre sa fonction de chef du gouvernement durant ces quatre prochaines années, que la CEDEAO a décrété un embargo contre son pays.
Mais la véritable problématique reste l’implication russe dans les affaires maliennes. Entrons dans le véritable but du sujet. L’Etat russe est un grand distributeur de Gaz au sein du continent européen. A ce titre, elle occupe un rôle essentiel, voire un maillon important dans une partie de l’économie européenne. Cette ressource naturelle lui sert de moyen de pression et même d’oppression sur plusieurs pays d’Europe. La France, par exemple, importe 20% de sa consommation en Gaz de la Russie, ce qui constitue un marché de taille ; mais d’un autre côté elle dénonce la politique étrangère de son partenaire et continue, d’ailleurs de fustiger les menaces du président russe contre ses voisins de l’Ukraine et même la présence de l’armée russe sur le territoire malien. La Russie est réellement une menace pour les intérêts français au sein de l’Afrique de l’ouest. Et ce nouveau partenariat avec l’État malien peut constituer un réel préjudice pour la stabilité et le bon voisinage entre pays africains, puisqu’il peut s’agir d’une guerre économique par États interposés : D’une part, le Sénégal, partenaire stratégique de la France et le Mali, nouveau terreau russe.
Que gagne la Russie dans son partenariat avec le Mali ?
A mon avis,
Rien de plus qui pourrait gonfler directement son économie, si on se réfère à la nouvelle cartographie qui laisse une large occupation des terres riches du Nord à des combattants djihadistes.
Sur le plan politique, la Russie vient de se faire une place importante dans la nouvelle balkanisation de l’Afrique occidentale, malheureusement replongée dans une suite de l’ancienne guerre froide.
La découverte d’importants gisements de gaz au Nord du Sénégal a réveillé les loups du continent européen. D’un côté, la Russie qui vient de voir naître, de nouveaux concurrents africains, dans le domaine de la production de gaz et d’un autre, la France qui espère souffler un ouf de soulagement, parce-que trouvant une occasion de satisfaire à moindre coût sa consommation de Gaz. Autrement dit, deux puissances européennes qui n’hésiteront pas à briser les relations de bon voisinage entre pays africains pour atteindre leurs objectifs.
La politique des grandes économies est parfois machiavélique au point qu’elle s’insurge dans les plus sombres compromissions. Le Sénégal devrait craindre ces pratiques occultes qui tendent à renforcer les  »contre-pouvoirs illégitimes, anticonformistes par des financements illégaux. De toute évidence, la stabilité politique du pays reste très menacée par l’adversité idéologique de pays du Nord, transposée dans la sous-région ouest-africaine.
L’actuel chef de la magistrature sénégalaise est plus interpellé, dans ces futurs choix politiques; encore qu’il devrait trancher de manière plus claire et très rassurante sur  »le troisième mandat », ceci dans l’intérêt de décrisper l’espace politique. Ce qui, de surcroît, ferait une avancée importante dans le processus d’apaisement des querelles entre politiques et la consolidation des acquis démocratiques.

Papa CISSÉ
Cellule des cadres de La République des Valeurs.

Author: S. N. NIASS

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