Des conditions pas favorables à une bonne rentrée de mousson sur le territoire pourrait entrainer un démarrage de la saison des pluies ‘’précoce’’ sur l’extrême sud-est, ‘’normal’’ sur le sud et l’est et ‘’normal à tardif’’ sur le reste du territoire avec de longues pauses pluviométriques au nord et au centre du pays.
Ces prévisions ont été annoncées vendredi par l’Agence nationale de l’aviation civile et de la métrologie (ANACIlM) dans un bulletin de prévision saisonnière au Sénégal pour l’hivernage 2021.
Dans le document dont l’APS a eu connaissance, l’ANACIM explique que ‘’les pluies saisonnières au Sénégal sont en garde partie influencées par les conditions des températures de surface (TSM) des océans pacifique et atlantique et de la mer méditerranée’’.
Or, l’analyse des TSM au niveau de ces bassins océaniques et les prévisions des modèles climatiques ’’montrent une situation complexe peu favorable à des précipitations abondantes’’.
L’agence ajoute que ‘’les conditions normales à froides observées sur le pacifique pourrait évoluer vers des conditions neutres au cours des prochains mois. Le début du réchauffement des eaux de surface observé sur le golf de guinée pourrait se maintenir jusqu’à la fin de la saison’’.
Le bulletin signale que ‘’sur les côtes sénégalo-mauritaniennes, des conditions TSM froides entre la Mauritanie et le Sénégal et chaudes sur le reste du bassin sont observées’’. Et d’après les modèles de grands centres mondiaux, ‘’cette situation évoluera vers un réchauffement’’.
Selon l’ANACIM, ‘’cette configuration des bassins et la prévision des différents modèles surtout sur l’atlantique (côtes sénégalo-mauritaniennes et golfe de guinée) ne sont pas en ce moment favorables à une bonne rentrée de mousson sur le territoire, ce qui pourrait impacter l’installation de la saison’’.
Ainsi, le démarrage de la saison des pluies pourrait être ‘’précoce’’ sur l’extrême sud-est, ‘’normal’’ sur le sud et l’est et ‘’normal à tardif’’ sur le reste du territoire avec de longues pauses pluviométriques au nord et au centre du pays.
Sur la période mai-juin,-juillet (MJJ), l’ANACIM fait état d’une pluviométrie normale sur la partie sud et est du pays et ‘’normale à déficitaire’’ sur le reste du pays.
Sur la période juin-juillet-août (JJA), les prévisionnistes annoncent une ‘’situation normale à déficitaire’’ sur la majeure partie du pays.
Selon l’ANACIM, ‘’ces prévisions donnent une tendance globale sur le cumul pluviométrique des deux périodes MJJ et JJA 2021’’.
Elle annonce qu’un autre bulletin sera émis à l’issue de la troisième décade du mois de mai pour la mise à jour de la prévision de la période juin-juillet-août et la prévision de la période juillet-août-septembre.
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