Dans ce contexte de pandémie qui touche le monde entier, les tensions financières jaillissent de partout.
Une chute à grande échelle des cours du pétrole occupe la thématique des colloques de multinationales du secteur.
Entre autres mesures prises dans le cadre de la Lutte généralisée contre le COVID19, le confinement des populations. Une solution jugée efficace, par certaines organisations internationales, mais qui continue d’étrangler les peuples ( Réduction des activités ) et les Economies ( La baisse de production des usines, les transports et autres entreprises mis à l’arrêt..)
La consommation mondiale qui avoisinait cent millions de barils par jour, avant la pandémie du Covid19, connaît présentement une baisse assez conséquente et reste à soixante douze millions barils par jour ( selon un document publié sur Rfi )
L’Or noir a remarquablement chuté ces derniers jours, laissant inquiètes les multinationales pétrolières comme ExxonMobil, BP, Total, Aramco..
‹‹ Nous avons vu s’évanouir toute la croissance de la demande mondiale enregistrée sur la dernière décennie. C’est historique ›› a dit Neil Atkinson, responsable des marchés pétroliers à l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie
Certes, de nombreux Etats planifient leur ‹‹ déconfinement ›› et adoptent de vigoureux plans de soutien à l’économie: ‹‹ En juin, une reprise graduelle devrait s’amorcer, mais la demande restera en baisse de 15 Millions de barils/j sur un an ››, informe l’AIE.
Face à la chute libre des cours du baril, l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (Opep) et ses principaux partenaires, réunis au sein de l’Opep+, se sont accordés dimanche sur une baisse de 9,7 millions de barils par jour en mai et juin, tandis que les pays du G20 ont promis une coopération accrue.
Ces mesures « ne vont pas rééquilibrer le marché immédiatement », car « aucun accord possible ne pourrait réduire l’offre pétrolière suffisamment pour compenser de tels plongeons soudains de la demande », prévient l’AIE.
Mais elles constituent « une première étape solide », salue-t-elle: « En amoindrissant le pic de l’offre et en ralentissant les gonflements de stocks, cela aide le système à absorber le pire de la crise ».
A la suite de l’accord de l’Opep+, la production mondiale de brut pourrait être sabrée de 12 mbj en mai, une baisse record.
De quoi limiter la surabondance de l’offre. Par ailleurs, la Chine, l’Inde, la Corée du Sud ou encore les Etats-Unis profitent des cours très bas pour gonfler leurs réserves stratégiques, ce qui contribuera également à désengorger le marché. ( Source AFP )
La compagnie pétrolière Total, qui a élargi ces zones d’investissement jusqu’au Sénégal, ces dernières années, envisage un avenir dans d’autres domaines comme Les énergies renouvelables : le solaire et l’éolien. Pour son PDG, la transition énergétique des économies a commencé.. et les voitures de demain seront en majorité électriques.
En conclusion, cette situation de crises financières dans le monde devrait inviter les pays africains détenteurs du liquide noir et d’autres ressources naturelles à repenser leur avenir économique par une plus grande négociation ou renégociation sur leurs avoirs.
D’autant plus, certaines majors pétrolières ont décidé de ralentir leur potentiel d’investissement en Afrique subsaharienne.
Les compagnies pétrolières, Total et Eni, très présentes sur le continent africain, ‹‹ ont d’ores et déjà annoncé une baisse de 25% de leurs investissements dans des projets d’exploration et de production en 2020, soit une réduction de 4 milliards € pour le géant français et de 2$ réduction de Milliards pour son rival italien. ( Ref TheAfricaReport )
La même source révèle que, Pour 2021, le patron d’Eni, Claudio Descalzi prévoit une baisse des investissements de 2,5 à 3 Milliards de Dollars, soit un tiers de son investissement prévu. L’impact sur le continent est inévitable, car Eni est le premier producteur d’hydrocarbures en Afrique avec environ 1,13 million de barils équivalent pétrole par jour extraits au troisième trimestre 2019.
L’Afrique subsaharienne, une région considérée à la fois comme à haut potentiel et à haut risque, sera affectée plus négativement que d’autres régions du monde, comme l’Europe du Nord, l’Asie et l’Afrique du Nord», a déclaré Siva Prasad, analyste senior en amont pour l’Afrique à Rystad Energy.
Selon Rystad, c’est une très mauvaise nouvelle pour des pays comme le SÉNÉGAL, la MAURITANIE, L’OUGANDA et le MOZAMBIQUE, qui espéraient rapidement faire partie du club des principaux pays producteurs de pétrole et de gaz. Les nouvelles n’augurent rien de bon non plus pour des producteurs de longue date comme le Nigeria, l’Angola et même l’Algérie , qui comptaient sur de nouveaux projets de développement pour rattraper le retard des champs matures.
Rystad révèle ensuite que ‹‹ le mégaprojet gazier Greater Tortue Ahmeyim, lancé en 2018 et opéré par BP à la frontière maritime entre le Sénégal et la Mauritanie, ne sera pas mis en service avant 2023, alors que son démarrage a été initialement annoncé pour 2022.
En fin de compte, seuls quelques rares grands projets qui ont déjà été lancés et sont vraiment à faible coût, en raison de la taille des champs concernés, devraient conserver leur calendrier initial.
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